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8/28/2015

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Something Old, Something New


For seven straight years, the Huskers have lost four games. No more, no less. Can they break the trend in year one under Riley? Should they be expected to? Here are my keys to the season:


1) Injuries and turnovers. I won’t spend much time on these, because they’re obvious. Turnovers can make or break a team, especially if they occur at key moments. Similarly, if DPE, Maliek Collins, and half the offensive line blow knees before October, don’t expect much. Nebraska’s no different from any other team in this respect, except they seem to have committed more turnovers and suffered more injuries than most teams in recent years. Some of that is self-inflicted, some of that is just bad luck. (Amendment: I wrote the rough draft of this post the day before Pierson-El was sidelined 6-8 weeks with a foot injury. Off to a good start, then.)

2) Tommy Gun. Tommy Armstrong has toughness, both physically and mentally, and a knack for making big plays. Unfortunately, he’s a terribly inconsistent passer who’s prone to making face-palm passes every now and then. Can he limit the mistakes and refine his passing skills? If so, look for great things from a proven leader. If not, it could be a long fall.

3) The lines. We know Nebraska has talent in the heart of the defensive line. But can those big fellas assert themselves under Mark Banker’s new defensive scheme? Whenever I get excited about Collins and Valentine in the middle, I remember them and the rest of their defensive comrades being bullied by a bunch of Gophers (never mind Melvin Gordon and the Badgers). This D-line should draw comparisons to the days of Suh and Company. If not, expect porous defensive stats. On the other side of the ball, health and consistency have been the problem the last few years. I don’t expect a return of the Pipeline, but a little more cohesiveness would be nice for a quarterback looking to take a leap forward and a running back corps trying to replace a legend.

4) Resiliency. I mentioned fire last week in regard to what I hoped to see from Riley’s teams in general, and Nebraska will need it in 2015, perhaps right out of the gate. With a new coaching staff and new culture, there will be some bumps and setbacks. Likely some losses. In Pelini’s first year, the team was markedly better by end of season than at the beginning. In Callahan’s first year, the team never improved a lick. If Riley is the real deal, it’s not unthinkable for the Huskers to use 2015 as a springboard into a strong 2016 campaign, but not if they don’t show the ability to bounce back from setbacks. Riley seems like an even-keel, stoic guy. Here’s hoping he can impart that mentality to his players without taking away any fire from their bellies.

Game by Game Breakdown:

BYU: This is the toughest opening test the Huskers have faced since their season-opening winning streak began in 1985. The Cougars, with a healthy Taysom Hill, have embarrassed Texas twice in the last two years, and could have a field day if the Blackshirts aren’t ready to rumble. They return 17 starters, assuming some aren’t suspended from the bowl game brawl, and will give Nebraska all they want. I expect the Huskers to play well, but my gut tells me BYU snaps the streak and launches a dark horse playoff run in Lincoln. Record: 0-1

SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars made it to a bowl game last year, but who didn’t? Bottom line is, the folks from Mobile don’t have the horses to compete with Nebraska if the Huskers are dialed in. Situated between BYU and Miami, this has the makings of a sandwich game, but this early into a new coaching staff’s administration, I don’t expect to see a lack of interest. It may not be a cakewalk, but the Huskers win comfortably. Record: 1-1

@ MIAMI: The Canes have speed and talent, but motivation is always the question for the squad from Coral Gables. (Or is it Miami Gardens?) Given the loss last year in Lincoln, and the chippy nature of that game, I expect The U to be rocking and rolling. We’ll get a good look at how the Huskers respond to a challenge when Miami jumps out early. Nebraska will rebound, maybe even take a second half lead, but ultimately fall in their first road contest. Record: 1-2

SOUTHERN MISS: This will be the first of two swing games for the Huskers. On paper, Southern Miss isn’t in Nebraska’s league. But if the Huskers limp in at 1-2, motivation could be a problem (as could a letdown if the Huskers roll in off a big win over Miami). Look for some sluggish moments early, and maybe even a bit of a scare. But in the end, Nebraska will take care of business against the Golden Eagles. Record: 2-2

@ ILLINOIS: The Fighting Illini is slowly improving under Tim Beckman—er, scratch that, he just got canned. This could be devastating to a team just a weak before the season begins, but then again, with Illinois, there isn’t all that much to devastate. If Nebraska shows up ready to play and doesn’t give the game away, Illinois should find themselves, as they have the last two years, significantly overmatched by the Big Red. Record: 3-2

WISCONSIN: There’s just no way the illogical Badger beatdowns continue. Is there? Sconnie loses all-world Melvin Gordon and several linemen, but they, as the Huskers used to do, just reload. I don’t expect much of a change under Paul Chryst, and by the time they roll into Lincoln, the Badgers should have recovered from an early season tussle with Alabama. Nebraska will have plenty of motivation after giving up a million yards rushing in the last few outings against Wisconsin, but I can’t pick Nebraska until they hold a Badger tailback under 200 yards rushing. Record: 3-3

@ MINNESOTA: This is the second swing game of the season. If I’m right and Nebraska heads to the Twin Cities at .500, the game against the Gophers could determine how the season goes (similar to the trip to Ames in 2008). Minnesota doesn’t do anything special, nor with anyone special. But they do what they do quite well, and they’ve taken advantage of Nebraska mistakes the last two years. The Huskers, in my opinion, are the more talented team, but they will need to be crisp. This time, I think they will be, and get what could be a signature road win for Mike Riley’s first team. Record: 4-3

NORTHWESTERN: Last year’s fourth quarter the exception, Nebraska’s four battles with Northwestern have been incredibly close and compelling. This is another instance where, if the Huskers play to their best, they should be able to dispatch a Wildcat team that has faded over the last few seasons. The ’95 championship team will be honored at this game, and if the Huskers pick up where they left off last year in Evanston, their performance should honor them as well. Record: 5-3

@ PURDUE: The Boilermakers improved marginally from 2013 to 2014, and could be fighting for bowl eligibility this year with 18 returning starters. Like with Illinois, Nebraska should win this game, but conference road tests late in the year are never gimmes. I expect Nebraska to spit the bit in one of these games, and with the Spartans on the horizon, the trip to West Lafayette could be the place. But the talent gap is enough that I’ll still pick the Huskers. Record: 6-3

MICHIGAN STATE: This could be the showcase game for Riley and the Huskers, played at home under the lights. The Spartans are proven and solid, but not unbeatable. Two months in, I think the Huskers will have gelled and figured out who they are, and I think they’ll give Michigan State all they can handle. In fact, I think they’ll do what Riley’s Beavers did so often during his time in Corvallis and upset a top ten team. Record: 7-3

@ RUTGERS: Coming off a huge win the previous week and having to make a long trip east (please, oh please, schedule this as an 11 kickoff, Big Ten) I think the game against the Scarlet Knights will be a tough one. The State University of New Jersey is not the laughing stock they once were, and has enough talent to pull the upset. Look for rain, wind, a few fumbles in the all-whites, and a frustrating defeat to hit that magical four-loss plateau. Record: 7-4

IOWA: Maybe I’m being myopic, but it felt like Nebraska’s comeback in Iowa City last year signaled the tipping point for the Hawkeyes. They’ve grown frustrated with the once-enamored Kirk Ferentz, and I think the wheels come off the Iowa bandwagon in 2015. Off a loss and a bye, Nebraska will be raring to go and I think they’ll pummel the Hawkeyes for a senior day win. Record 8-4

BOWL GAME: It’s impossible to tell how the bowl selection will play out, let alone how motivated a potential Huskers opponent will be. But I’ll say that with an 8-4 record, Nebraska will fall enough in the pecking order to draw an opponent they can beat (read, not an SEC team). Give the Huskers a win to get over the nine-win hump, making 2015 a good but not great season. Sound familiar?

OVERALL: There isn’t a guaranteed loss on the schedule, and aside from a couple of non-conference cupcakes, not an easy win either. It’s not inconceivable to see this Nebraska team survive early struggles with “mid-major” BYU and mercurial Miami, outduel Wisconsin, and be sporting a bagel in the loss column to November. It’s also not absurd to see them with a losing record into the late stages of October, and with a few bad breaks, struggling for bowl eligibility. The tolerances, to borrow a term from CBS golf analyst Nick Faldo, are finer than they used to be in college football. For that reason, I’ll stray from either extreme and pick a middle-of-the-road 9-4 record. Year one, I think that will be okay with most Husker fans. I know it would be for this one.

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8/19/2015

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The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship?

The college football season kicks off in just over two weeks, and Nebraska will be tested right out of the gate by BYU. By week three, the Huskers could very conceivably be 1-2 and doing soul-searching or undefeated and garnering attention. I’ll post my season keys and predictions next week, but for now, some comprehensive thoughts on the program:

Expectations are high for Nebraska entering the Mike Riley era, but they are also guarded. I wrote my thoughts last year on the Riley hire, and in short they are this: Riley’s a good hire for a team without a coach; I’m not sure Riley’s a good switch for a team with a coach who’s won nine games every year, admittedly with some ugly moments on and off the field. But Riley’s the guy now, and I’m ready to see what the Huskers can do.

We live in an age of over-reaction, and the best fans in college football are no different. But I offer this caution: Brady Hoke went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl his first season at Michigan, and Nick Saban’s team limped to a 6-6 regular season mark with a home loss to Louisiana-Monroe in his first year at Alabama. How did those two careers shape up? Point being, unless Nebraska wins an undefeated conference championship or loses to everyone north of the Mason-Dixon Line, the 2015 season may not be much of a barometer of Riley’s future tenure at Nebraska.

That being said, it will be interesting to see what trends develop. By season seven of the Pelini era, we were all aware of the Huskers’ strengths and shortcomings. Will Riley’s team develop a pattern of big deficits and huge comebacks? Will they stun top-ranked teams or routinely lose games they shouldn’t? Will they be disciplined or mistake-prone? The early returns of year one won’t be guarantee of the future, but I am looking forward (hopefully) to seeing what sort of make-up Riley’s teams have, particularly in the following four areas:

1) Play-calling. No fans are ever really happy with the way their team’s coaches call plays, at least not after the first punt of the season. And I try not to act as though I, in my rocking chair, know more about football than Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf, Tim Beck, or Shawn Watson (okay, in that last case, maybe I do). Obviously, I’m eager to see what style of offense the Huskers will run, but beyond that, plenty of questions remain. Will the Huskers have some consistency? Will they be smart? Will they be too conservative? Will they become predictable? Will they utilize talent well? Will they take what the defense gives them or do what they do no matter what? And will they run a few token option plays for us old-timers.

2) Player development. Let’s face it, Nebraska isn’t going to be landing top-five recruiting classes full of blue-chippers anytime soon. (Unless Riley is a legendary recruiter, which is area 2a.) That’s okay, they didn’t in the early ’90s either, and they won three (almost five) national titles with those players. Chiefly, can Riley develop quarterbacks? Callahan, the offensive guru, didn’t. Pelini didn’t. How will Tommy Armstrong improve from last year and throughout this year? More importantly, will top-rated quarterbacks want to come to Nebraska in the future?

3) The Blackshirts. Bo Pelini was hired as a defensive genius, and two seasons in, it appeared he was just that. Ndamukong Suh had just terrorized Colt McCoy and been named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, and the Huskers lead the nation in total defense. But the drop-off started in 2010, and hit snowball mode in 2011. Pelini’s later units maintained what I called a Gandalf Defense (“You shall not pass”), but they were often matadors against the run. The meltdowns of recent years, combined with the absurd finish to the 2007 season (did Kansas really put up 76 points on us? Kansas?), made the Blackshirts a punchline more than a feared moniker. We’re not likely to see the return of the mid-’90s bone-throwers, when players like Harris and Jones, Wistrom and Peter tormented opposing quarterbacks. (The Frank Costa and Danny Wuerffel support group meets every other Tuesday at 9:00.) But I’d settle, at least at first, for having a solid unit that doesn’t lose the game. Then, once that foundation is firm, maybe we can return to tormenting quarterbacks like the Blackshirts of old. (Kordell Stewart just started hyperventilating.)

4) Fire. Pelini’s teams, for all their failures, showed a remarkable ability to come from behind. Whenever you counted Pelini’s Huskers out (in a game, in a season) they responded. (Unfortunately, whenever you really started to believe, they usually face-planted too.) Will Riley’s team show that moxie, that scrappy mentality? Will they show up for the big games or will they shy away from the spotlight? We may not get a chance to see them in a truly seminal game this year, but we’ll get several mini-big games—if you will—when the Badgers and Spartans visit Lincoln. Bottom line, will Riley’s teams fight? I’d rather have an imperfect team that scraps to the end than a by-the-book club that is flat and heartless.

Time will tell if Shawn Eichorst made the right decision by firing Bo Pelini and by hiring Mike Riley. While that time will likely be measured in years, it begins in just a fortnight. This season will have its share of anxious moments (can we keep the nine-win streak going, will Wisconsin score more points than we amass passing yards, did we really just call that play in that situation!?!?!?) it also promises the excitement of learning the nuances of a new staff and team, and I think, at least one big win (see next week’s post). One thing’s sure, it will be an adventure.

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    I'm an exiled Husker living in Sheboygan, Wisconsin. Make no mistake, when I say "Go Big Red" I'm talking about the Scarlet and the Cream.

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