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9/6/2015

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BYU (28-33)

Opening Thoughts
As far as losses go, this one is right up there. It doesn’t have near the significance of the ’84 or ’94 Orange Bowls, or the 2009 Big XII Championship Game, but it was a heartbreaking way to lose. And yet, it didn’t gut me the way giving up a 42-yard pass on the final play of the game should. One reason is that I expected BYU to win, admittedly with their starting quarterback making the big play late. Another is that you could see it coming the entire fourth quarter when Nebraska failed to put the Cougars away. But the biggest reason why I’m not devastated by the loss is because I’m trying to look at the big picture this season. Whether Nebraska gets ten wins and a New Year’s Day bowl or eight wins and a MAC opponent in December could rest on a few fluke plays. What I want to find out is where the Huskers will be two and a half years from now—battling for a Big Ten title and a playoff berth, or clambering up a backyard mound in a King of the Hill battle with teams from border states.

The Good (What I Liked)
Fight: Late in the second quarter and after the first series of the third, I thought the Huskers would get run out of their own stadium. Then Nate Gerry stepped in a passing lane and they turned things around. Memorial Stadium went from lifeless to energizing, and the Huskers went from leaning on the ropes to landing haymakers. We got our first glimpse of how they responded to adversity, and it was good. Now we’ll get a much better look.

Tommy Gunning: Armstrong has improved as a passer. Nobody will mistake him for Peyton Manning anytime soon, and there were still some errant throws, particularly in the second quarter. But there were also long stretches where he looked sharp. He’ll get in trouble relying on arm strength alone and throwing off his back foot, and there is plenty of progress yet to be made. But ABC commentators Chris Spielman and Todd McShay repeatedly mentioned his improvement from last year, and I have to agree. Let’s hope it continues.

Creativity: It’s too early to decide on Danny Langsdorf as a play-caller, but I had mixed feelings about what I saw Saturday. What I really liked were the late release route by Foster on the TD and the pump and go to Reilly on the last drive. Those are new and clever looks I hope to see more. I’m also a fan of screens as a major part of the offense (maybe not so often on third-and-long, but I don’t want to nitpick) and distributing the ball to a variety of players. Aside from some things I’ll mention later, I give the early returns of the offense a thumbs up.

The Bad (What I Didn’t Like)
Same Old Song: Frustrating, inexcusable miscues were one of the bugaboos of the Pelini-era, and in game one of the Riley regime, they’re still there. Penalties, turnovers, and offensive disappearing acts hurt the Huskers again. Some—or all—of that could be a result of first-game rust, but it still gives one pause.

The Open Door: Starting the fourth quarter, Nebraska had the lead, momentum, and a worn-down opponent missing its starting QB (technically he played a little into the quarter) and its stud on defense. And they couldn’t close. The offense went into a shell, productivity-wise. The defense failed to land a knockout blow and blew the final series. All the attention goes to the Hail Mary, but any number of plays along the way could have saved the day.

Play Calls: I am the typical armchair quarterback who loves to criticize play calling. I try not to, however, because such criticism is often results-based. If Newby plows into the line for a yard, everyone complains about Nebraska going conservative and playing not to lose. If he finds a crease and gets six yards, everyone champions the Huskers for getting back to power football and starts drawing comparisons to the Pipeline. That being said, I do have two bones to pick. One is the QB sneak middle of the fourth quarter. I love a good QB keeper as much as the next guy, especially when that QB is Scott Frost behind an unstoppable line. Yesterday, Nebraska’s O-line was porous, and that was a long yard they asked Armstrong to get. Number two is the jet or fly sweep that was Nebraska’s final offensive snap. I am a fan of the play as a staple in the offense, but I don’t like it in a “must have” situation because there is too much east-west running. This makes it susceptible to being blown up, which can be survived on first-and-ten, but not on third-and-three. And when the jet/fly sweep is blown up, it gets nothing or loses yards because of the east-west running. I would have preferred an option. Armstrong is a smooth option operator and a tough runner, and BYU wouldn’t likely be expecting a play Nebraska had run once or twice all game. And, while it could be blown up for lost yardage too, the option provides a better chance of getting a yard or two and opening the door to go on fourth down.

Running Away: Nebraska gave up on the run, particularly in the second quarter. Then again, their leading rusher at the half was a wide receiver, so it’s hard to blame them. The O-line is inexperienced, so I’m hoping they can gel by the time Big Ten play rolls around. If not, it will be a long season. There were very few rushing lanes, no breakaway runs, and Armstrong barely had time to catch the snap before being pressured on passing plays. I wonder how much of the pass-heavy play calling was due to the deficit, how much was due to BYU not having the greatest secondary ever, how much was due to the inability to run, and how much was indicative of what we’ll see from the Riley/Langsdorf brain trust. On the plus side, I thought going back to the run with the big fella (Cross) after the Gerry pick was a smart move. As I said above, it’s too early to vote yay or nay on Langsdorf, but there were a few things that had me scratching my head.

Defenseless: Hail Mary’s happen. I get it. A guy scrambles around, heaves up a prayer, five guys are jumping and trying to catch it and knock it down and bat it away, and hands and fingers deflect the ball and strange things happen. Ask Jordan Westerkamp. But that wasn’t the case Saturday. Nebraska just blew it defensively. As soon as the Cougars got to midfield (on a dubious run call that, had it gained less than ten yards, would have left the visitors scrambling to get off another play) I figured a heave to the end zone was fifty-fifty given their corps of eight-foot-tall receivers. But Nebraska could have played it better in several ways:
     1) I’m not a fan of only rushing three guys. I get not wanting to blitz when a QB only needs time to throw the ball forty yards, but you’ve got to come with at least four.
     2) Why wasn’t the good hands team on the field? Put out Westerkamp and Reilly. They don’t have to cover or tackle, just high-point a football. And nothing against Luke Gifford, but having a freshman linebacker only playing because of a suspension is questionable to me too.
     3) Positioning was off. Somebody has to front ALL Cougar players, and somebody has to be deep as the deepest. The Hail Mary is known for its chaos, and Nebraska’s defense showed why.
     4) I do not have a problem with Riley’s timeouts. In fact, they’re the right move. You want to make sure the guys know what they’re doing. To that end, I wish we’d taken another one. I saw someone on Twitter opining that the timeout was a bad move because it gave BYU time to get organized. It doesn’t take much organization to run around and heave a ball as far as you can. It does, apparently, take some organization to knock down such a pass.

Ultimately, flukes are going to happen. But this wasn’t a fluke. This was very poor defense.

At the End of the Day
Suppose Nate Gerry had gotten around Mitch Matthews a split second faster and had knocked the ball to the Memorial Stadium turf. Suppose Nebraska won 28-27. Aside from being 1-0 instead of 0-1, what difference did that final play make? Other than bowl positioning and nine-wins-a-season streaks, does this play change anything? Had Nebraska won, they still were mistake prone, struggled with blocking, and couldn’t put away a team without its best players. (As an aside, remember when freshman quarterbacks used to get rattled?) They still made some dubious decisions and struggled in the kicking game. They’re still a M*A*S*H unit heading forward. In the end, they essentially played an even game with BYU, with both teams missing key players due to suspensions and injuries. So does that one play change your perception of Riley as a coach, of his staff’s ability to motivate and teach players, of the team’s talent or fight? It shouldn’t. We live in an overreacting society, and so I’m trying hard not to do that. We saw a lot of good and a lot of bad. Ultimately, it’s too early to tell if the brief glimpses were the rules or the exceptions. It’s going to be weeks before we know what the 2015 Huskers are and seasons before we can judge the new staff. Bottom line, as that ball was in the air, all that really hung in the balance was the outcome of a single game. And in that case, I guess it was pretty gut wrenching after all.

Extra Points
Jordan Westerkamp is a star. His catch radius is huge and he is a playmaker. We’ll miss Kenny Bell, but maybe not as much as we thought.

It’s hard to judge running backs who have no holes to run through, but I thought the freshman Wilbon showed promise. I read someone last week (and I don’t remember who so I can’t give them credit) who thought he would be starting by the end of the year. I can see why.

Drew Brown struggled, but don’t put the loss on him. The first FG was into a strong wind and the second, as it turned out, wouldn’t have mattered a lick. BYU would have gotten the ball after a touchback at the same spot on the field and needed the touchdown they scored.

It could be worse, Husker fans. Penn State got trounced by Temple. Stanford’s playoff bid died in the high grass at Northwestern. And Texas . . . ugh.

It’s a shame to learn that Taysom Hill’s season (and possibly career) are over because of injury. The kid is a real talent and BYU had a chance for a special season. Actually, they still might.

I love seeing teams celebrate huge wins. I’m just sick of seeing it in the visitors’ locker room at Memorial Stadium. Was it just me or did Bronco Mendenhall floating on his players’ hands seem reminiscent of ISU coach Paul Rhodes being “so proud” to be the Cyclones’ coach a few years back?

Anybody else keeping an eye on the YSU Penguins? Bo Pelini’s squad hung around with Pitt, losing by only eight.

Next Week
South Alabama went bowling last year, but so did every team with a pulse. Talent-wise, Nebraska should have a solid advantage. It just remains to be seen how the Huskers bounce back from a tough week. I think youth serves them well, as will Riley’s demeanor. I expect a good week of practice and a solid effort against the Jaguars. Some things to watch: Does the O-line continue to struggle? If so, it’s still early, but a major cause for concern. Does a running back begin to emerge from the pack? Will suspended players return (particularly on defense) and what sort of impact will they make? Can the kicking game (assumedly minus Sam Foltz) get on track? I’ll say the Huskers win 38-17 in a game that maybe isn’t as close as the score suggests. #GBR



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8/28/2015

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Something Old, Something New


For seven straight years, the Huskers have lost four games. No more, no less. Can they break the trend in year one under Riley? Should they be expected to? Here are my keys to the season:


1) Injuries and turnovers. I won’t spend much time on these, because they’re obvious. Turnovers can make or break a team, especially if they occur at key moments. Similarly, if DPE, Maliek Collins, and half the offensive line blow knees before October, don’t expect much. Nebraska’s no different from any other team in this respect, except they seem to have committed more turnovers and suffered more injuries than most teams in recent years. Some of that is self-inflicted, some of that is just bad luck. (Amendment: I wrote the rough draft of this post the day before Pierson-El was sidelined 6-8 weeks with a foot injury. Off to a good start, then.)

2) Tommy Gun. Tommy Armstrong has toughness, both physically and mentally, and a knack for making big plays. Unfortunately, he’s a terribly inconsistent passer who’s prone to making face-palm passes every now and then. Can he limit the mistakes and refine his passing skills? If so, look for great things from a proven leader. If not, it could be a long fall.

3) The lines. We know Nebraska has talent in the heart of the defensive line. But can those big fellas assert themselves under Mark Banker’s new defensive scheme? Whenever I get excited about Collins and Valentine in the middle, I remember them and the rest of their defensive comrades being bullied by a bunch of Gophers (never mind Melvin Gordon and the Badgers). This D-line should draw comparisons to the days of Suh and Company. If not, expect porous defensive stats. On the other side of the ball, health and consistency have been the problem the last few years. I don’t expect a return of the Pipeline, but a little more cohesiveness would be nice for a quarterback looking to take a leap forward and a running back corps trying to replace a legend.

4) Resiliency. I mentioned fire last week in regard to what I hoped to see from Riley’s teams in general, and Nebraska will need it in 2015, perhaps right out of the gate. With a new coaching staff and new culture, there will be some bumps and setbacks. Likely some losses. In Pelini’s first year, the team was markedly better by end of season than at the beginning. In Callahan’s first year, the team never improved a lick. If Riley is the real deal, it’s not unthinkable for the Huskers to use 2015 as a springboard into a strong 2016 campaign, but not if they don’t show the ability to bounce back from setbacks. Riley seems like an even-keel, stoic guy. Here’s hoping he can impart that mentality to his players without taking away any fire from their bellies.

Game by Game Breakdown:

BYU: This is the toughest opening test the Huskers have faced since their season-opening winning streak began in 1985. The Cougars, with a healthy Taysom Hill, have embarrassed Texas twice in the last two years, and could have a field day if the Blackshirts aren’t ready to rumble. They return 17 starters, assuming some aren’t suspended from the bowl game brawl, and will give Nebraska all they want. I expect the Huskers to play well, but my gut tells me BYU snaps the streak and launches a dark horse playoff run in Lincoln. Record: 0-1

SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars made it to a bowl game last year, but who didn’t? Bottom line is, the folks from Mobile don’t have the horses to compete with Nebraska if the Huskers are dialed in. Situated between BYU and Miami, this has the makings of a sandwich game, but this early into a new coaching staff’s administration, I don’t expect to see a lack of interest. It may not be a cakewalk, but the Huskers win comfortably. Record: 1-1

@ MIAMI: The Canes have speed and talent, but motivation is always the question for the squad from Coral Gables. (Or is it Miami Gardens?) Given the loss last year in Lincoln, and the chippy nature of that game, I expect The U to be rocking and rolling. We’ll get a good look at how the Huskers respond to a challenge when Miami jumps out early. Nebraska will rebound, maybe even take a second half lead, but ultimately fall in their first road contest. Record: 1-2

SOUTHERN MISS: This will be the first of two swing games for the Huskers. On paper, Southern Miss isn’t in Nebraska’s league. But if the Huskers limp in at 1-2, motivation could be a problem (as could a letdown if the Huskers roll in off a big win over Miami). Look for some sluggish moments early, and maybe even a bit of a scare. But in the end, Nebraska will take care of business against the Golden Eagles. Record: 2-2

@ ILLINOIS: The Fighting Illini is slowly improving under Tim Beckman—er, scratch that, he just got canned. This could be devastating to a team just a weak before the season begins, but then again, with Illinois, there isn’t all that much to devastate. If Nebraska shows up ready to play and doesn’t give the game away, Illinois should find themselves, as they have the last two years, significantly overmatched by the Big Red. Record: 3-2

WISCONSIN: There’s just no way the illogical Badger beatdowns continue. Is there? Sconnie loses all-world Melvin Gordon and several linemen, but they, as the Huskers used to do, just reload. I don’t expect much of a change under Paul Chryst, and by the time they roll into Lincoln, the Badgers should have recovered from an early season tussle with Alabama. Nebraska will have plenty of motivation after giving up a million yards rushing in the last few outings against Wisconsin, but I can’t pick Nebraska until they hold a Badger tailback under 200 yards rushing. Record: 3-3

@ MINNESOTA: This is the second swing game of the season. If I’m right and Nebraska heads to the Twin Cities at .500, the game against the Gophers could determine how the season goes (similar to the trip to Ames in 2008). Minnesota doesn’t do anything special, nor with anyone special. But they do what they do quite well, and they’ve taken advantage of Nebraska mistakes the last two years. The Huskers, in my opinion, are the more talented team, but they will need to be crisp. This time, I think they will be, and get what could be a signature road win for Mike Riley’s first team. Record: 4-3

NORTHWESTERN: Last year’s fourth quarter the exception, Nebraska’s four battles with Northwestern have been incredibly close and compelling. This is another instance where, if the Huskers play to their best, they should be able to dispatch a Wildcat team that has faded over the last few seasons. The ’95 championship team will be honored at this game, and if the Huskers pick up where they left off last year in Evanston, their performance should honor them as well. Record: 5-3

@ PURDUE: The Boilermakers improved marginally from 2013 to 2014, and could be fighting for bowl eligibility this year with 18 returning starters. Like with Illinois, Nebraska should win this game, but conference road tests late in the year are never gimmes. I expect Nebraska to spit the bit in one of these games, and with the Spartans on the horizon, the trip to West Lafayette could be the place. But the talent gap is enough that I’ll still pick the Huskers. Record: 6-3

MICHIGAN STATE: This could be the showcase game for Riley and the Huskers, played at home under the lights. The Spartans are proven and solid, but not unbeatable. Two months in, I think the Huskers will have gelled and figured out who they are, and I think they’ll give Michigan State all they can handle. In fact, I think they’ll do what Riley’s Beavers did so often during his time in Corvallis and upset a top ten team. Record: 7-3

@ RUTGERS: Coming off a huge win the previous week and having to make a long trip east (please, oh please, schedule this as an 11 kickoff, Big Ten) I think the game against the Scarlet Knights will be a tough one. The State University of New Jersey is not the laughing stock they once were, and has enough talent to pull the upset. Look for rain, wind, a few fumbles in the all-whites, and a frustrating defeat to hit that magical four-loss plateau. Record: 7-4

IOWA: Maybe I’m being myopic, but it felt like Nebraska’s comeback in Iowa City last year signaled the tipping point for the Hawkeyes. They’ve grown frustrated with the once-enamored Kirk Ferentz, and I think the wheels come off the Iowa bandwagon in 2015. Off a loss and a bye, Nebraska will be raring to go and I think they’ll pummel the Hawkeyes for a senior day win. Record 8-4

BOWL GAME: It’s impossible to tell how the bowl selection will play out, let alone how motivated a potential Huskers opponent will be. But I’ll say that with an 8-4 record, Nebraska will fall enough in the pecking order to draw an opponent they can beat (read, not an SEC team). Give the Huskers a win to get over the nine-win hump, making 2015 a good but not great season. Sound familiar?

OVERALL: There isn’t a guaranteed loss on the schedule, and aside from a couple of non-conference cupcakes, not an easy win either. It’s not inconceivable to see this Nebraska team survive early struggles with “mid-major” BYU and mercurial Miami, outduel Wisconsin, and be sporting a bagel in the loss column to November. It’s also not absurd to see them with a losing record into the late stages of October, and with a few bad breaks, struggling for bowl eligibility. The tolerances, to borrow a term from CBS golf analyst Nick Faldo, are finer than they used to be in college football. For that reason, I’ll stray from either extreme and pick a middle-of-the-road 9-4 record. Year one, I think that will be okay with most Husker fans. I know it would be for this one.

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8/19/2015

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The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship?

The college football season kicks off in just over two weeks, and Nebraska will be tested right out of the gate by BYU. By week three, the Huskers could very conceivably be 1-2 and doing soul-searching or undefeated and garnering attention. I’ll post my season keys and predictions next week, but for now, some comprehensive thoughts on the program:

Expectations are high for Nebraska entering the Mike Riley era, but they are also guarded. I wrote my thoughts last year on the Riley hire, and in short they are this: Riley’s a good hire for a team without a coach; I’m not sure Riley’s a good switch for a team with a coach who’s won nine games every year, admittedly with some ugly moments on and off the field. But Riley’s the guy now, and I’m ready to see what the Huskers can do.

We live in an age of over-reaction, and the best fans in college football are no different. But I offer this caution: Brady Hoke went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl his first season at Michigan, and Nick Saban’s team limped to a 6-6 regular season mark with a home loss to Louisiana-Monroe in his first year at Alabama. How did those two careers shape up? Point being, unless Nebraska wins an undefeated conference championship or loses to everyone north of the Mason-Dixon Line, the 2015 season may not be much of a barometer of Riley’s future tenure at Nebraska.

That being said, it will be interesting to see what trends develop. By season seven of the Pelini era, we were all aware of the Huskers’ strengths and shortcomings. Will Riley’s team develop a pattern of big deficits and huge comebacks? Will they stun top-ranked teams or routinely lose games they shouldn’t? Will they be disciplined or mistake-prone? The early returns of year one won’t be guarantee of the future, but I am looking forward (hopefully) to seeing what sort of make-up Riley’s teams have, particularly in the following four areas:

1) Play-calling. No fans are ever really happy with the way their team’s coaches call plays, at least not after the first punt of the season. And I try not to act as though I, in my rocking chair, know more about football than Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf, Tim Beck, or Shawn Watson (okay, in that last case, maybe I do). Obviously, I’m eager to see what style of offense the Huskers will run, but beyond that, plenty of questions remain. Will the Huskers have some consistency? Will they be smart? Will they be too conservative? Will they become predictable? Will they utilize talent well? Will they take what the defense gives them or do what they do no matter what? And will they run a few token option plays for us old-timers.

2) Player development. Let’s face it, Nebraska isn’t going to be landing top-five recruiting classes full of blue-chippers anytime soon. (Unless Riley is a legendary recruiter, which is area 2a.) That’s okay, they didn’t in the early ’90s either, and they won three (almost five) national titles with those players. Chiefly, can Riley develop quarterbacks? Callahan, the offensive guru, didn’t. Pelini didn’t. How will Tommy Armstrong improve from last year and throughout this year? More importantly, will top-rated quarterbacks want to come to Nebraska in the future?

3) The Blackshirts. Bo Pelini was hired as a defensive genius, and two seasons in, it appeared he was just that. Ndamukong Suh had just terrorized Colt McCoy and been named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, and the Huskers lead the nation in total defense. But the drop-off started in 2010, and hit snowball mode in 2011. Pelini’s later units maintained what I called a Gandalf Defense (“You shall not pass”), but they were often matadors against the run. The meltdowns of recent years, combined with the absurd finish to the 2007 season (did Kansas really put up 76 points on us? Kansas?), made the Blackshirts a punchline more than a feared moniker. We’re not likely to see the return of the mid-’90s bone-throwers, when players like Harris and Jones, Wistrom and Peter tormented opposing quarterbacks. (The Frank Costa and Danny Wuerffel support group meets every other Tuesday at 9:00.) But I’d settle, at least at first, for having a solid unit that doesn’t lose the game. Then, once that foundation is firm, maybe we can return to tormenting quarterbacks like the Blackshirts of old. (Kordell Stewart just started hyperventilating.)

4) Fire. Pelini’s teams, for all their failures, showed a remarkable ability to come from behind. Whenever you counted Pelini’s Huskers out (in a game, in a season) they responded. (Unfortunately, whenever you really started to believe, they usually face-planted too.) Will Riley’s team show that moxie, that scrappy mentality? Will they show up for the big games or will they shy away from the spotlight? We may not get a chance to see them in a truly seminal game this year, but we’ll get several mini-big games—if you will—when the Badgers and Spartans visit Lincoln. Bottom line, will Riley’s teams fight? I’d rather have an imperfect team that scraps to the end than a by-the-book club that is flat and heartless.

Time will tell if Shawn Eichorst made the right decision by firing Bo Pelini and by hiring Mike Riley. While that time will likely be measured in years, it begins in just a fortnight. This season will have its share of anxious moments (can we keep the nine-win streak going, will Wisconsin score more points than we amass passing yards, did we really just call that play in that situation!?!?!?) it also promises the excitement of learning the nuances of a new staff and team, and I think, at least one big win (see next week’s post). One thing’s sure, it will be an adventure.

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